Mortgage Market Shifts: How to Adapt

With mortgage rates elevated for two-plus years and a Fed rate cut on the horizon, the Squeeze team maps out exactly how consumer-direct businesses should be positioning right now — and why flexibility beats a hiring spree every time.

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Key takeaways

A refi wave is likely imminent as the Fed prepares to cut rates — lenders who prepare sales teams now will win the race for borrowers locked in at 2022–2024 highs.
HELOCs and home equity loans are a strong near-term product because they beat credit-card rates even in a high-rate environment, and interest may be tax-deductible.
Squeeze reduced its mortgage revenue dependency from ~75–80% of business by deliberately expanding into consumer debt, home services, and aging-in-place verticals.
Flexible staffing — contractors and cross-trained agents — lets partners scale for a volume surge without the overhead risk of permanent hires.
Loan officers who only took orders during the ultra-low-rate era need active sales coaching before the next wave hits, or companies will bleed opportunities.
Constraint breeds creativity: Squeeze's COVID pivot to remote work, completed in one weekend, unlocked the ability to scale from ~200 agents to 500+.
Consumer-facing messaging must be built around the borrower's or debtor's emotional state — empathy in the sales process demonstrably lifts conversion.

Where the Mortgage Market Stands

Squeeze has been in the mortgage space since 2012, giving the team a long lens on rate cycles. After the historic lows of the COVID era, rates began climbing in March 2022 and have stayed elevated for roughly two and a half years. Consumer-direct mortgage operations that were closing 2,000–3,000 loans a month have trimmed to hundreds, and lender headcounts have shrunk to match. The team notes that while today’s 7%+ environment feels painful, rates near that level aren’t historically unusual — the host bought his first home at 7.5–8% in 2000.

The Coming Refi Wave — and the Race to Capture It

With the Fed widely expected to cut rates at its September 2024 meeting, the team sees a clear near-term opportunity: borrowers who took out purchase or cash-out mortgages over the last two and a half years at elevated rates will move fast to refinance. One lending partner already saw volume 3–4× in a single weekend when rates dipped from roughly 7% to 6.1%. The risk, the hosts warn, is that loan officers who spent the low-rate era taking easy orders have lost the muscle memory for real sales — and companies that aren’t drilling their teams now will fumble inbound volume when it surges.

Diversification as a Survival Strategy

At the end of 2021, roughly 75–80% of Squeeze’s revenue was tied to mortgage. Recognizing how dangerous that concentration was, the executive team made diversification a formal objective. Verticals they’ve since scaled include:

Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and home equity loans — still attractive versus credit-card rates even at current interest levels, and potentially tax-deductible.
Consumer debt resolution — U.S. consumer debt exceeds $1 trillion and shows no sign of shrinking.
Home services — remodeling has thrived as homeowners stay put rather than trade up; solar has struggled because financing costs erode the savings offset.
Aging-in-place products (e.g., walk-in tubs) and home security — categories where the purchase genuinely improves quality of life.

Flexibility Over Headcount: The Contractor Advantage

The team’s core operational lesson from every cycle — the Great Recession, COVID, and now the high-rate era — is to maintain flexibility rather than over-hiring. When COVID hit, Squeeze moved ~250 office employees to fully remote in a single weekend and posted a record production day the following Monday. That same agility applies to staffing today: cross-training agents across multiple verticals and leaning on outsourced capacity lets partners scale into a rate-drop wave without locking in fixed overhead for what may be a temporary surge.

Consumer Empathy as a Sales Strategy

Across every vertical — mortgage, debt resolution, home services — the hosts stress that agents are often speaking with people on their worst financial day. Training teams to hold those conversations with empathy and professionalism isn’t just the right thing to do; it measurably increases conversion rates. Messaging, scripts, and ads all need to be built around the consumer’s actual pain points, not the product’s features.

Constraint brings creativity — constraint brings you know being scrappy and figuring things out.

— Jake Thorpe

If they're prepared right now to go after those refinance opportunities, that's the smart thing to do right now.

— Jake Thorpe

You want to maintain some semblance of flexibility — how do I maintain redundancy, how do I maintain flexibility and not go all in on something that may or may not be permanent.

— Jake Thorpe

Understand the burden that the consumer is feeling — put yourself in their shoes — because that is how you will build a customer base that's loyal, that retains, and ultimately will be profitable.

— Nate Cay

Episode chapters

Frequently asked questions

Why are mortgage rates still high in 2024?

The Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively starting in March 2022 to combat inflation fueled by COVID-era stimulus and supply-chain disruptions. As of mid-2024 the Fed had not yet cut rates, though a September 2024 cut was widely anticipated.

Is now a good time to refinance a mortgage?

It depends on your existing rate. Borrowers who took out mortgages in 2022–2024 at 7%+ are likely candidates once rates dip meaningfully. Those who locked in 2–3% COVID-era rates will probably only benefit from a HELOC or home equity loan rather than a full refinance.

What is a HELOC and why is it attractive right now?

A home equity line of credit lets homeowners borrow against built-up equity. Even at current elevated rates, HELOC interest is typically well below credit-card APRs and may be tax-deductible, making it a practical tool for debt consolidation.

How should mortgage companies staff up for a rate-drop surge?

The Squeeze team advises against mass permanent hiring for what may be a temporary wave. Instead, they recommend cross-training existing staff, tightening sales processes now, and partnering with flexible outsourced contact-center teams that can scale up or down quickly.

Why did solar energy struggle while home remodeling thrived during high rates?

Solar installations are typically financed, so higher interest rates raise the monthly payment enough to eliminate the savings offset from lower utility bills. Remodeling benefited because homeowners chose to upgrade existing homes rather than buy new ones at high mortgage rates.

What consumer debt trends is Squeeze seeing?

U.S. consumer debt has surpassed $1 trillion and continues to grow, driven in part by social-media-fueled spending culture. Squeeze has scaled its consumer debt resolution vertical to help people manage credit-card and unsecured debt, viewing it as a durable opportunity regardless of the rate environment.

Mortgage Market Shifts: How to Adapt | Ep 06